China's economic growth will pick up after the sec

2022-08-21
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China's economic growth will pick up after the second quarter

Introduction: the 12th annual meeting of the China Development Forum, which has attracted much attention, officially closed at noon yesterday. Following the previous two days, Minister of Finance Xie Xuren, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming, Minister of human resources and social security Yin Weimin, and director of the national development and Reform Commission Zhang Ping, heavyweight experts feel the pulse of the global economy, and contribute to the future of China's economy

the 12th annual meeting of the China Development Forum, which has attracted much attention, officially closed at noon yesterday. Following two days ago, Minister of Finance Xie Xuren, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming, Minister of human resources and social security Yin Weimin, and director of the national development and Reform Commission Zhang Ping, heavyweight experts, who have a pulse on the global economy and provide advice for the future Chinese economy, the political, business Many elites in the industry yesterday put forward their wonderful views on the 12th Five Year Plan, macroeconomic policies and international cooperation under the new global economic pattern

Zhang Yutai, director of the development center of the State Council, pointed out that China's economic growth momentum is still strong, and the annual price level will show a trend from high to low. Foreign experts pointed out that China should achieve five changes in the way of investment, and the speed of personal income and service industry in GD is also achieved by changing gears. The proportion of friction and wear testing machines with different constant speeds is low. John Lipsky, the first vice president of the International Monetary Fund, said that emerging economies should adjust their fiscal and monetary policies to deal with inflation in the near future

new projects under the 12th Five Year Plan will help promote the recovery of economic growth

Zhang Yutai, director of the development center of the State Council, said yesterday at the "12th China development high level forum" that the second phase of macroeconomic index compiled by the Development Research Center of the State Council showed that China's economic growth will pick up steadily after the second quarter of 2011. He also said that China's economic growth will slow down this year compared with last year, but the growth momentum is still strong

this year, China will implement the barrier housing plan of 10million hedging, a global popular technology, which will gradually penetrate into all manufacturing fields. It will also start water conservancy, protective cover and spectrum highway. Some analysts believe that new projects in the 12th Five Year Plan, such as railways, are expected to maintain a relatively high-speed growth in investment. Zhang Yutai believes that this is one of the important factors supporting the economic growth momentum

in addition, under the influence of favorable factors such as wage rise and personal income tax reform, China's consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents will maintain a stable growth; The recovery of developed economies, the gradual decline of unemployment rate and the recovery of demand are expected to be conducive to the rapid growth of China's exports and will also support China's economic growth

Zhang Yutai believes that the expected target of China's economic growth in 2011 is about 8%, which is not only conducive to maintaining steady and rapid economic development, but also reserves space for economic restructuring, which is conducive to improving the overall quality and level of growth

the annual price level is high before and low after

Zhang Yutai also believes that although the pressure of the current general price level rise is still relatively large, he has the conditions and confidence to reach the regulation target of about 4% this year

the main favorable factors supporting the realization of this goal are: China's agriculture has had a bumper harvest for seven consecutive years, the grain supply is abundant, and the grain inventory rate is as high as 40%, far higher than the internationally accepted standard of 17% - 18%; Accelerating the construction of the circulation system of agricultural products is conducive to reducing the pressure of rising prices from the intermediate links

"at the same time, the monetary factors leading to inflation have been preliminarily controlled. In February 2011, China's broad money growth rate slowed down to 15.7%, lower than the regulation target of 16%, new loans decreased significantly in a single month, and there is still relatively large room for choice in the policy combination of price regulation." Zhang Yutai predicted that the annual price level will show a trend of high before low

there is still room for the deposit reserve ratio to increase

Wu Xiaoling, vice chairman of the financial and Economic Commission of the National People's Congress, said at the Forum on the 19th that the deposit reserve ratio cannot set a ceiling. As long as the interest can cover the cost of commercial banks, there is still room for the deposit reserve ratio to increase

she told the media during the "two sessions" this year that raising the deposit reserve ratio would only allow commercial banks to reduce undue profits, rather than have a hard financial impact on them. Multi use of deposit reserve ratio does not mean the use of interest rate instruments; The tool of differential deposit reserve ratio will continue to be used, but the reference factors and calculation methods will change

Stephen Roach, a professor at Yale University and non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley (Asia), said that raising interest rates could not solve inflation for a long time

"this year is the first year of China's 12th Five Year Plan, and the inflation rate has a high trend." Stephen Roach believes that most of China's inflation comes from agriculture, and the government cannot solve inflation for a long time by raising interest rates

"at present, the growth of personal consumption in China's external markets - the United States, Europe and Japan is very limited, which is also a challenge for China's exports. In the case of weak external demand, we must turn the focus to internal demand." Stephen Roach believes that China should stimulate domestic demand

Stephen Roach mentioned the concept of "the rise of Chinese consumers". He believes that Chinese consumers may play a more important role in promoting China's growth in the demand of China's "12th Five Year Plan". He further believes that China's macroeconomic dynamics include three basic elements: employment provided by the service industry; Wage growth mainly through agricultural income growth; Economic growth supported by domestic demand

Stephen Roach believes that among major economies, China's personal income in GDP is very low. China still has a long way to go to improve the proportion of personal income in GDP and turn personal income into actually increased purchasing power in the future

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