China's crude oil production fell 73 year-on-year

2022-08-22
  • Detail

In May, China's crude oil production fell by 7.3% year-on-year, the largest decline in 15 years

recently, the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that China's crude oil production in May was 16.87 million tons, a year-on-year drop of 7.3%, a new high in nearly 15 years. In the first may, the cumulative oil production was 85.01 million tons, a year-on-year drop of 3.7%

while China's crude oil production continues to decline, China's dependence on crude oil imports from January to May this year reached a historical high of 64.6%

at the same time, on June 21, the General Administration of Customs released data that in May this year, China's crude oil imports from Russia reached a record high of 5.245 million tons, about 1.24 million barrels per day, an increase of 33.7% over the same period last year

insiders said that high imports under the background of low oil prices are completely logical and not worrying. With the shutdown of more inefficient oil wells in China and the limited potential of China's resource reserves, shale oil is difficult to make progress, while GDP is still growing, and China's dependence on crude oil imports may further expand in the future. This is not a problem in the period of low oil prices, but once the oil price rebounds, it will still be detrimental to the economy as a whole

at present, China's crude oil exploration and production is still concentrated in the hands of three barrels of oil. In recent years, China's annual oil production has been around 200 million tons

according to insiders, during the "13th five year plan" period, China will also basically maintain the existing reserve production ratio, that is, the newly increased reserves and exploitation volume are basically the same

in the past two years when the international oil price has continued to decline, the upstream exploration and production has been driven into a cold winter, and many oil fields in China have also entered the quagmire of loss

in fact, under the expectation that the oil price will remain low, many oilfields have to break their arms to survive, and large oilfields, including Daqing and Shengli, have waved the flag of production reduction. Sinopec set a production target of 274 million barrels in 2016, a decrease of 7.5%, and the actual production reduction in the first quarter was 10.35%. PetroChina's production reduction target this year was 4.8%, and the production reduction in the first quarter was 2.5% according to the world bank's global business environment report

at the beginning of this year, all three barrels of oil held pessimistic expectations for oil prices and threw out production reduction plans one after another. Although the output of Yanchang oil is small, it is now basically shut down. By the end of the second quarter, the international oil price had started to rebalance, and NYMEX WTI and Brent, both of which are owned by Zhishang, had crossed $50/barrel, rebounding nearly 100% from the lowest point of $26

however, the market is also expected to add more than 100 material specialists in the next few years. The person said that the balance point of most domestic oilfields is $50 - $60/barrel, so increasing production is not on the agenda

analysts Xiang said that at present, most people believe that reaching $60/barrel within this year is the upper limit, and it is likely to reach $80/barrel next year. Therefore, the annual output of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 5%-10%, basically unchanged

she also pointed out that the crude oil production has decreased, but the growth rate of the technology center, another service sector of China's GDP, is still at a high level worldwide, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel consumption has also continued to grow, but the speed has slowed down. Therefore, the crude oil processing capacity of refineries will be increased, and the increase in the total demand for crude oil can only be met by increasing imports

it should be mentioned that it is understood that the operating rate of China's main refineries has basically changed little, and the increase in crude oil processing volume mainly comes from local refineries. Now, the oil refining profit has reached an unprecedented high, which has stimulated the refinery's enthusiasm for processing

according to statistics, at present, the operating rate of local refining is 45%-50%, an increase of 5 percentage points over the same period last year. The monthly processing of crude oil is million tons, including about 4million tons of imported crude oil

it is also learned that with the continuous liberalization of crude oil import rights, the crude oil import force continues to expand

on June 14, the Ministry of Commerce announced that the non-state trade import qualification of crude oil of Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. entered the publicity period. At the same time, on June 17, PetroChina (60 displacement accuracy as high as 0.001mm1857, Guba) and the Chemical Industry Federation issued the publicity of the verification and evaluation of the use of imported crude oil of Shandong Qingyuan Group Co., Ltd., which significantly accelerated the progress of the approval of imported crude oil for local refining

since Dongming Petrochemical obtained the right to import crude oil on July 7, 2015, up to now, a total of 18 local refineries in China have been approved to import crude oil use quotas of 64.69 million tons/year, with a cumulative eliminated capacity of 52.78 million tons/year; Since Dongming Petrochemical obtained the right to use non-state trade on August 24, 2015, a total of 13 local refineries in China have received 49.29 million tons/year of crude oil import quotas

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI