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20 cities with the greatest price reduction pressure in the property market in 2016

20 cities with the greatest price reduction pressure in the property market in 2016

December 8, 2015

[China paint information] the report "house prices may fall by a cliff in 2016" scared many people. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences clarified overnight, but the Academy of social sciences did not overturn its views, It's just that the media highlighted this view

will house prices rise or fall

the Institute of standard ranking believes that generally speaking, it is too difficult to consider external factors such as the amount of money to say whether the national house price rises or falls. We should change our thinking, respect the fact of price differentiation, and consider the rise and fall of prices from a simpler perspective. From the perspective of land transfer, it is easy for us to return to simplicity: analyze the land transfer situation in different regions, and then come to the price increase momentum or price reduction pressure of the developer itself. If the developer dares to buy land at a relatively high price, then when it sells buildings, the price increase momentum is relatively large. Vice versa

on the whole, the national real estate market was sluggish in 2015, and the overall situation of land transfer was not optimistic

According to the statistics of the standard ranking Institute, as of November 18, 2015 (the same below), the land transfer income of 100 major cities in China was 1.33 trillion yuan, compared with 1.86 trillion yuan last year, the completion rate was only 71%

it is not easy to sell 500billion yuan of land in the last month and a half. In 2015, the year-on-year decline in land transfer income in 100 major cities across the country has become a fact

Shenzhen is in danger

it is not only the third and fourth tier cities that are lagging behind. In the first tier cities, except Beijing, the land income in Shanghai is only 69% of that in 2014, lower than the national average; 77% in Guangzhou is slightly better; Shenzhen only completed 47% of the worst. In 2014, the annual land purchase income was 65.4 billion yuan, and this year, it was only 30.8 billion yuan

since this year, the house price in Shenzhen has risen by more than 30%, making it the fastest rising city in the mainland's first-line real estate market. At present, the house price in Shenzhen has exceeded the 40000 yuan/square meter mark

behind the soaring housing prices in Shenzhen, on the one hand, Shenzhen has only slightly more than 6 months of inventory, compared with the inventory of other cities for 9-12 months, Shenzhen's houses are more in demand for buyers; But on the other hand, in the face of the rising prices of the property market in Shenzhen, the attitude of developers is more cautious

among the first tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen), Shenzhen has the lowest land transaction volume this year. According to the statistics of the standard ranking Institute, as of November 18, Shenzhen's land transaction was only 30.8 billion yuan, only 47% of last year's total compared with the whole year of 2014 (65.4 billion yuan), ranking last among the first tier cities. At the same time, the floor price of land transactions in Shenzhen also decreased by 3400 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 28.81%, and the premium rate of land transactions fell by nearly 30 percentage points

the prosperity of Shenzhen's land market in 2014 led to the rise of the property market in 2015. After the decline of the land market in 2015, it is unknown whether the Shenzhen property market will continue to rise or adjust in 2016. However, it should be reminded that behind the ups and downs of the Shenzhen land market, it has been revealed that the attitude of developers towards the local property market has changed from positive to wait-and-see

of course, another possibility is that the plots sold in Shenzhen in 2015 are all located on the side, which helps to confirm that the powder materials suitable for multi jet fusion technology are rare, driving down the total price and unit price. However, according to the statistics of the standard ranking Institute, Shenzhen not only ranked among the "20 cities with the greatest pressure on property market price reduction in 2016", but also ranked high, ranking seventh

Zhoushan's floor price fell by nearly 80%, and Xiamen was unexpectedly defeated in the "price rising power list"

the standard ranking Research Institute ranked comprehensively according to three indicators, including the completion of land income, the growth of floor price and the growth of premium rate, and finally selected "the 20 cities with the greatest pressure on property market price reduction in 2016": Zhoushan, Zhanjiang, Shaoguan, Ganzhou, Huizhou, Taizhou, Shenzhen, Dali, Changsha, Bengbu, Zhongshan, Weifang, Beihai, Jiangmen Lishui, Changzhou, Suqian, Yangzhou, Guiyang and Hohhot

as of November 18, Shaoguan ranked first among the 10 cities with the worst land transactions, with a land transaction volume of 477 million yuan. Compared with the transaction volume of nearly 3.4 billion yuan last year, this year only completed 14% of last year's total, ranking the lowest among the 100 cities. Lishui and Ganzhou ranked second and third respectively, with only about 15% of the land completed. Changsha, ranked 9th, is the only provincial capital city on the list, with a land transaction volume of only 7.4 billion yuan, only 1/4 of that of nearly 30 billion yuan in 2014

in the ranking of floor price decline, Zhoushan ranked first. In 2015, the floor price of land transaction was only 405 yuan/m2, compared with 1856 yuan/m2 in 2014, with a decrease of 78%; In addition to Zhoushan, there are three cities with a floor price decrease of more than 50%, namely Yangzhou (53%), Lishui (52.12%) and Huizhou (50%). If ranked in absolute terms, Shenzhen is the first, with a decrease of 3400 yuan per square meter, and the worst among the 100 cities

among the 10 cities with the fastest decline in premium rate, Jining is a wonderful flower. In 2014, the land transaction premium rate in this region was nearly 60%, which has fallen to zero this year. Jining has also become the city with the fastest decline in premium rate in 2015. Although the city's Xiangjian software shows that the land income level and floor price have increased this year, such a change in the premium rate has affected the optimistic judgment of the property market in the region

similarly, there is another controversial city on the issue of premium rate - Xiamen. It ranked fifth in the decline of premium rate in 2015, and the premium rate decreased by 14 percentage points. At the same time, the completion of land transactions in Xiamen is as high as 168%, and the floor price has also increased by 38% year-on-year. The above two indicators rank 6th and 14th respectively in the ranking of 100 cities. However, the decline in the premium rate this year is relatively large, which makes it a pity that it will not finally become the 20 cities with the most driving force for price increase

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