Prospect of the export situation of mechanical and

2022-10-12
  • Detail

Outlook on the export situation of mechanical and electrical products in 2004

Guide: in recent years, China's export of mechanical and electrical products has increased rapidly, and has become China's largest export commodity for eight consecutive years. It is the leading factor and important force driving the growth of China's mechanical and electronic manufacturing industry and the growth of foreign trade exports for a long time, and plays an important role in China's foreign trade exports. In 1997, the export of mechanical and electrical products accounted for

in recent years, the export of mechanical and electrical products in China has increased rapidly, and has become the largest export commodity in China for eight consecutive years. It is the leading factor and important force to drive the growth of China's mechanical and electronic manufacturing industry and the growth of foreign trade exports for a long time, and plays an important role in China's foreign trade exports. In 1997, the export of mechanical and electrical products accounted for only 33% of the total export volume of the country, increased to 48% in 2002, and will exceed 50% for the first time in 2003. The rapid growth of mechanical and electrical products exports is inseparable from the implementation of China's "invigorating trade through science and technology" policy, the state's preferential policies on loans, insurance, export tax rebates and other aspects of related industries, as well as the transfer of a large number of foreign multinational mechanical and electrical production enterprises to the Chinese market

In 2003, despite the negative impact of the Iraq war and the SARS epidemic, China's import and export of mechanical and electrical products still maintained a high growth momentum, and the import and export volume reached new highs. In January, the total import and export of mechanical and electrical products was US $403.1 billion, an increase of 43.4%, accounting for 52.7% of the national foreign trade import and export. Among them, the export of mechanical and electrical products reached US $2016.8 billion, achieving the "Tenth Five Year Plan" target of US $180billion two years ahead of schedule, with a cumulative increase of 42.6%, accounting for 51.7% of the country's total foreign trade exports; The import of mechanical and electrical products reached US $2014.02 billion, with a cumulative increase of 44.1%, accounting for 54.4% of the total national foreign trade import. Moreover, China's continued deficit in foreign trade in mechanical and electrical products was reversed in 2003, with a monthly surplus of US $260million

first, China's export of mechanical and electrical products will continue to maintain a steady growth

1. The accelerated recovery of the world economy will expand the market space for China's export of mechanical and electrical products

since the beginning of 2000, a series of events such as the burst of the foam in the western stock market, "the September 11 terrorist attacks" and the Iraq war have occurred one after another, and the world economy has fallen into a mild recession for three years. However, since the second half of 2003, the three major economies of the United States, Europe and Japan have recovered in an all-round way, driving the global economy to continue to improve. Major international organizations have made predictions of accelerated world economic growth. Various signs show that the world economy is entering a new round of growth cycle

the demand of China's major trading partners and the international market is one of the main factors that determine China's export growth. The accelerated pace of world economic recovery will certainly promote the warming of World Trade and improve China's export trade environment. First of all, the accelerated growth of international trade means that even if China's export market share does not increase at present, the market space will be significantly increased; Secondly, the improvement of the trade environment will further increase the demand for China's export products in the international market, not only improve China's export trade environment, but also enhance the competitiveness of China's export commodities. As the largest category of products exported by China, the export environment of mechanical and electrical products will also be greatly improved with the strong recovery of world economic growth and the prosperity of international trade, thus facing a new growth opportunity

2. The driving effect of the depreciation of the US dollar will also enhance the export competitiveness of China's mechanical and electrical products

in the past two years, the exchange rate of the US dollar has fallen step by step, and the relative price of the US dollar against many currencies has fallen to the lowest point in recent years: the US dollar has fallen by about 20% against the euro, which has fallen below the lowest point since the euro was introduced; It fell about 11% against the yen; Against Sterling fell to the lowest level in nearly 11 years; The exchange rate against the Swiss franc is also the lowest in seven years. Because the current interest rate level of the United States is very low and there is a huge current account deficit, the weakness of the dollar is still difficult to reverse in the short term

due to its peg to the US dollar, while the US dollar fell, the RMB also depreciated against the Japanese yen and the euro, making the price competitive advantage of China's mechanical and electrical products more obvious. On the other hand, due to the relative depreciation of the RMB, people have expectations of the long-term appreciation of the RMB, prompting export enterprises to expand the export of mechanical and electrical products as soon as possible

3. China's increasingly perfect export policy system of mechanical and electrical products has created a good policy environment for expanding the export of mechanical and electrical products

in order to support the export enterprises of mechanical and electrical products to carry out technological innovation activities and optimize the structure of export products, in recent years, the Chinese government has launched a series of policies aimed at promoting and expanding the export of mechanical and electrical products. At present, the policy system for promoting the export of mechanical and electrical products is gradually forming and improving. The policy system mainly includes the following aspects: mechanical and electrical products industry support policy, working capital loan support policy, policy loan support policy, policy insurance support, export tax rebate policy, overseas processing trade support policy, processing trade support policy, quality certification and export commodity inspection support policy, as well as mechanical and electrical products export order support policy

in particular, in order to improve the technical content and added value of export products, the Ministry of Commerce has also set up a research and development bonus for export mechanical and electrical products, which provides free subsidies to enterprises for research and development and export of mechanical and electrical products with strong independent innovation, high technical content, competitiveness and good market prospects, and provides 1billion euros in 10 years. Recently, it announced the "guide for key support projects of research and development funds for export mechanical and electrical products in 2003". Under the guidance of the guide and a series of policies to promote exports, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products will not only achieve quantitative growth, but also make great progress in quality

4. The export of mechanical and electrical products of foreign-invested enterprises will still maintain a vigorous growth

after China's accession to the WTO, foreign investors have further increased their investment in China, making China the country that received the most foreign direct investment in the world in 2002. A large number of international multinational companies have partially or completely relocated their production links and even their original factories in other countries to China, accelerating the industrial transfer to China. At the same time, the export of mechanical and electrical products of foreign-invested enterprises has also shown a vigorous situation, and has become the main force in the export of mechanical and electrical products. In 2003, the export of foreign-invested mechanical and electrical products was 125.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 50.5% year-on-year, accounting for 70% of the total export of mechanical and electrical products; Among them, 60.4% were exports of wholly foreign-owned enterprises, with a year-on-year increase of 66.5%

in the past two years, the world economy has remained depressed, and global direct investment has fallen sharply. In contrast, China's actual absorption of foreign investment has increased significantly, and the capital increase of foreign-invested enterprises has increased significantly, indicating that multinational companies have accelerated the process of production transfer to China. However, since the fourth quarter of last year, the economies of major countries in the world, led by the United States, have shown signs of accelerating recovery, and global transnational investment is about to grow. Relevant empirical analysis shows that when China's FDI inflow growth accelerates, China's FDI inflow growth tends to slow down; When the growth of global FDI inflows slows down, the growth of FDI inflows in China tends to accelerate. Therefore, when the world economy recovers and global investment is active, international capital flows may change, that is, the growth rate of China's FDI inflow will slow down, which will have a negative impact on China's attraction of foreign investment to a certain extent. However, as China's huge market demand and the rapid development of the information technology market are the direct incentives for the concentration of production and procurement of the information technology industry in China, China's good political and economic situation and sustained high-speed economic growth are the fundamental guarantee for the inflow of FDI and the global production transfer effect. Therefore, even if the growth of foreign direct investment slows down, Foreign invested enterprises that have entered China will also give full play to the comparative advantages of China's manufacturing industry, continue to enhance the export capacity of China's mechanical and electrical products, optimize the export structure of China's mechanical and electrical products, and promote the export of China's mechanical and electrical products with high-tech content

5. The export of private high-tech enterprises has increased rapidly

with the reform of the foreign trade system and China's entry into the world trade organization, China has further reduced the threshold of enterprises' self-supporting import and export rights, and more private enterprises and joint-stock enterprises have obtained the export rights, which has brought new vitality to China's export of mechanical and electrical products. In 2003, the export of mechanical and electrical products of collective enterprises and private enterprises reached US $6.89 billion and US $8.65 billion respectively, an increase of 30.6% and 1.8 times respectively, accounting for an increase in the proportion of total exports over the previous year, showing great development potential. Under the premise of sustained and rapid economic growth in China, the export capacity of mechanical and electrical products of private enterprises will be further improved

6. The regional structure of China's export of mechanical and electrical products has been continuously optimized

in 2003, the export of mechanical and electrical products of 29 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in China increased over the same period last year. Among them, the export of mechanical and electrical products of 10 provinces and cities in the East is US $177.21 billion, accounting for 96.5% of the national export of mechanical and electrical products in the same period. It is the main region of China's export of mechanical and electrical products

new breakthroughs have also been made in the export of mechanical and electrical products in the central and western regions. Chongqing exported 704million US dollars of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 65.8% over the same period last year. It is particularly worth mentioning that Guangxi and Xinjiang exported mechanical and electrical products of US $321 million and US $263 million in 2003, an increase of 54.9% and 108.5% over the same period last year, making a major breakthrough. With the gradual promotion and implementation of the western development policy and other regional economic development policies, the export of mechanical and electrical products in the central and western regions of China will also continue to expand driven by the eastern region

7. A number of high-tech mechanical and electrical industries with a certain scale and international competitive advantages are forming in China.

the share of mechanical and electrical products manufactured in China in the international market continues to expand, and more than a dozen kinds of mechanical and electrical products have ranked first in the world in terms of export quantity and amount. At present, the export volume and amount of TV sets, DVD players, mobile phones, monitors, SPC exchanges, air conditioners, containers, optical components, power tools, small household appliances and other products made in China rank first in the world; The export of motorcycles and other commodities ranks second in the world. Most other mechanical and electrical products also have the competitive advantage of "high quality and low price" in the international market

second, the growth rate of China's export of mechanical and electrical products will slow down.

although a series of positive factors continue to support the continuous growth of China's export of mechanical and electrical products, some uncertain factors such as the reduction of export tax rebate rate, the excessive export base last year, the enhancement of new trade protectionism, the expectation of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the U.S. general election may have a certain inhibitory effect on China's export of mechanical and electrical products. It is estimated that the export growth of China's mechanical and electrical products may show a growth trend from low to high this year, and the annual export growth may fall back to less than 30%

1. The reduction of the export tax rebate rate will slow down the export growth of China's mechanical and electrical products in the short term

on October 13, 2003, the State Council issued a decision on reforming the current export tax rebate mechanism, carrying out structural adjustment to the current value-added tax rebate rate of export goods, and stipulated that the export tax rebate rate of some products will be reduced from January 1, 2004. The promulgation of this decision will have a negative impact on the export enterprises of mechanical and electrical products to a certain extent

the export tax rebate rate of most mechanical and electrical products will be reduced to 13%, which will directly increase the export cost of these products and affect their export competitiveness. According to the calculation of enterprises, the decrease of export tax rebate rate is roughly the same as the increase of export cost, and the increase of export cost will inevitably lead to the surface of PEBA price

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI